Expectations of Iban: Paris-Nice

Iban will start the much debated Paris-Nice on Sunday as one of Saunier Duval`s big hopes for the GC. The race is hilly enough, so I do have some expectations of Iban this time around.

Prologue: The race kicks-off with a very short prologue on the outskirts of Paris. We all know TTs, and especially prologues, isn`t Iban`s thing, if you know what I mean. Though, when on form, Iban has recorded several good results in short prologues, like his two prologue victories in the Dauphiné are a proof of. So, as Iban is expected to be on a competitive level, I expect him to finish in the top 30. Stage 1: A lon flat drag that will end in a mass-sprint. Iban will finish safe inside the pack. Stage 2: Another sprint-ending stage. If he avoids crashes and that sort of things, he`ll finish in the peloton. Stage 3: With a 2nd category climb coming 35 kms from the end, this could well be a stage where the overall standings are turned up-side-down. Though, with a down-hill finish I don`t expect Iban to win it. I hope to see Iban in the leading group, but I guess that`s not as easy as it sounds. This year`s Paris-Nice has a very strong field, and with Iban don`t expected to peak until May, it`s hard to predict. Though, I sincerely hope he`ll come in with the first group. Stage 4: With the stage ending on a 1st category top, I expect Iban to finish top 20 or something. Though, with Iban you never know. He can just as well win the stage, mark my words, but he can also finish mid-pack. A top 20 seems realistic. Stage 5: A 178 km-long hilly stage. Once again I expect Iban to be with the first group, but not to fight it out for the win. Stage 6: A very hilly stage, so my expectations are very similar to those on stage 5. Stage 7: The queen-stage, with no less than 3 1st category climbs on the menu.Though, as the stage finish comes 20 kms after the last top, Iban`s chances are reduced. But, if Iban is firing on all sylinders, he might fight it out for the stage win. Top 20 seems once again realistic.

Overall: A top-20 finish on GC is my bet. Though, Iban might well do way better than that. He might even sneak into the top-5 if he`s up for it. But my official bet will be 17th.