Sunday, April 08, 2007

Expectations of Iban: Vuelta al País Vasco


The Vuelta al País Vasco will kick off tomorrow in the village of Urretxu. The Vuelta al País Vasco is a six-day long hilly stage-race, where Iban has got an impressive track-record. In 2003 he took the overall title along with 3 stages, and in 2004 he placed 2nd overall. Last year Iban placed 25th, and even though that doesn`t raise any eyebrows, we finally got to see glimpses of the Iban of 2003 and 2004. This year his home-race is one of his main goals for the season, and even though he crashed in Paris-Nice and that significantly disturbed his preperations, Iban is predicted to fight for a high overall placing and stage-wins. Iban will co-lead an imperious-looking Saunier Duval team together with 2006 winner Goméz Marchante and on-form climber Koldo Gil. The race also sees Iban race his first race back in Euskadi in the yellow of Saunier. Here`s what I expect from Iban:


Stage 1: The first stage features an amazing 9 categorized climbs; six of the second and three of the third. The stage will end on the category 3 climb Urretxu after 139 km in the saddle. This looks like a stage where Iban can show himself. Though, I would have expected more from Iban if the stage had ended on a 1st category climb instead of a third category. The peloton will be in pieces, but I don`t expect the time-differences to be huge. Probably many riders will arrive inside half a minute. I don`t expect Iban to win at all, but I do expect him to stay with the best ones. Top-20 on the first stage. Stage 2: The second stage is very much like the first one. Though, this time the race ends atop the 2nd category Alto Cuevas de Pozalagua. Here I expect Iban to really show himself, as Iban is more suited to longer and harder climbs that short and steep ones. Though, this climb may also be a bit too short for Iban, but a top-15 should definitely be possible for a rider of Iban`s calibre. Top-15. Stage 3: The third stage isn`t as hilly as the two first ones, though, a 3rd category climb 12 km from the line should shake things up a little. I expect Iban to come in at the same time as the main favourites. Stage 4: Here I expect Iban, if he`s in real form, to fight for the stage-win. Two 1st category climbs, the last one with the summit 3 km from the line, suits Iban, and though I hope for a stage victory, I`ll be pleased with a top-10, though not far behind the winner. Stage 5: Vey hilly stage, which includes the infamous 1st category Jaizkibel. Though, I`m afraid the climbs come a bit too far away from the finish line. I hope, and predict, that Iban will come in with the main favourites and place perhaps top-30. Stage 6: The last stage is a slightly hilly 14 km ITT. We all know that`s not Iban`s speciality, but remember, Iban has won two ITTs in País Vasco earlier. Though, I don`t expect too much. Top-40 and I`d be pleased.

Overall: This is really hard to predict, as Iban`s state of form is still sort of an unknown. His crash and subsequent injuries in Paris-Nice will no doubt have affected him, and, remember, he`s not supposed to be in peak form until the Giro in May. Though, he showed in Paris-Nice that he`s in rather good shape, so I`ll go for a top-15 placing overall. My exact tip would be a 12th place on GC.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

spanish.
I hope as well a 15 overall for Iban. The real leaders for GC are Martxante and Gil as they are in the maximum peak form. I think one of them get the GC.
Mayo try to help them with break aways and maybe trying to get a stage. But i dont know the best days for Iban, except Vitorias finalle, all of them are for climbers, so posible to get for him, but it is depend of the race situation mainly, not if the stage suites Iban a little bit more.
Bye.
Congratulations for the page.

Magnus said...

Thanks:) You`re right, all stages are for climbers, so Iban should have his possibilities.

 

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