Expectations of Iban: Vuelta al País Vasco

The Vuelta al País Vasco will kick off tomorrow in the village of Urretxu. The Vuelta al País Vasco is a six-day long hilly stage-race, where Iban has got an impressive track-record. In 2003 he took the overall title along with 3 stages, and in 2004 he placed 2nd overall. Last year Iban placed 25th, and even though that doesn`t raise any eyebrows, we finally got to see glimpses of the Iban of 2003 and 2004. This year his home-race is one of his main goals for the season, and even though he crashed in Paris-Nice and that significantly disturbed his preperations, Iban is predicted to fight for a high overall placing and stage-wins. Iban will co-lead an imperious-looking Saunier Duval team together with 2006 winner Goméz Marchante and on-form climber Koldo Gil. The race also sees Iban race his first race back in Euskadi in the yellow of Saunier. Here`s what I expect from Iban:

Stage 1: The first stage features an amazing 9 categorized climbs; six of the second and three of the third. The stage will end on the category 3 climb Urretxu after 139 km in the saddle. This looks like a stage where Iban can show himself. Though, I would have expected more from Iban if the stage had ended on a 1st category climb instead of a third category. The peloton will be in pieces, but I don`t expect the time-differences to be huge. Probably many riders will arrive inside half a minute. I don`t expect Iban to win at all, but I do expect him to stay with the best ones. Top-20 on the first stage. Stage 2: The second stage is very much like the first one. Though, this time the race ends atop the 2nd category Alto Cuevas de Pozalagua. Here I expect Iban to really show himself, as Iban is more suited to longer and harder climbs that short and steep ones. Though, this climb may also be a bit too short for Iban, but a top-15 should definitely be possible for a rider of Iban`s calibre. Top-15. Stage 3: The third stage isn`t as hilly as the two first ones, though, a 3rd category climb 12 km from the line should shake things up a little. I expect Iban to come in at the same time as the main favourites. Stage 4: Here I expect Iban, if he`s in real form, to fight for the stage-win. Two 1st category climbs, the last one with the summit 3 km from the line, suits Iban, and though I hope for a stage victory, I`ll be pleased with a top-10, though not far behind the winner. Stage 5: Vey hilly stage, which includes the infamous 1st category Jaizkibel. Though, I`m afraid the climbs come a bit too far away from the finish line. I hope, and predict, that Iban will come in with the main favourites and place perhaps top-30. Stage 6: The last stage is a slightly hilly 14 km ITT. We all know that`s not Iban`s speciality, but remember, Iban has won two ITTs in País Vasco earlier. Though, I don`t expect too much. Top-40 and I`d be pleased.

Overall: This is really hard to predict, as Iban`s state of form is still sort of an unknown. His crash and subsequent injuries in Paris-Nice will no doubt have affected him, and, remember, he`s not supposed to be in peak form until the Giro in May. Though, he showed in Paris-Nice that he`s in rather good shape, so I`ll go for a top-15 placing overall. My exact tip would be a 12th place on GC.